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Hey Gemini, is this an AI bubble?
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In this issue:

🫧 Bubble trouble

Retail me maybe

Clarity needed

Jesse Klein, Courtney Vien, Mikaela Cohen

RISK MANAGEMENT

A hand holding a needle about to pop a glowing AI bubble.

Anna Kim

CFOs are under pressure from their bosses to budget for AI and weave it into every workflow, or at the very least, to show some sort of justification for the added spend. But as AI seems to be injected into every aspect of life—from the mundane of recipe hunting to the more complex identification of business opportunities—chatter of an “AI bubble” is happening all over.

As IT Brew recently reported, Alphabet’s CEO Sundar Pichai told investors during the company’s latest earnings call that AI helped drive a $100 billion quarter: “Five years ago, our quarterly revenue was at $50 billion. Our revenue number has doubled since then, and we are firmly in the generative AI era.”

But this week, the Wall Street Journal reported that investors, “already nervous about the sky-high valuations of AI businesses, have taken note of the weakness in the bond market.” The analysis came on the heels of reporting that raised questions about Meta’s use of “aggressive” structured financing, as it uses debt to fund a gigantic $27 billion data center for AI in Louisiana.

We asked Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, to explain what’s causing the bubble, how it’s affecting retail investment, how to know when it might burst, and what consequences CFOs need to be aware of if it does.

Read the interview in full.JK

Presented By ServiceNow

STRATEGY

Black Friday deals signs inside a Walmart store.

Jessica Mcgowan/Getty Images

US consumers continued to shop steadily in Q3, but they were strongly focused on value. At least, that’s what earnings calls from major retailers suggest.

Prices are rising. Walmart, for instance, reported inflation for the quarter was up 1.3%, with prices for food and general merchandise rising by “low single digits,” CEO Doug McMillon said. TJX CEO Ernie Herrman said his stores have raised prices “selectively” and that he’s seen prices increase across other retailers and categories due to tariffs.

Against that backdrop, consumers are looking for deals. “Guests are choiceful, stretching budgets and prioritizing value,” Richard Gomez, Target’s chief commercial officer, said. John Rainey, CFO of Walmart, described the consumer landscape as “consistent” but with “some pockets of moderation.”

Those “pockets” may be concentrated in lower income brackets. US consumers are “still spending,” McMillon said, but “upper and middle income households [are] driving our growth.” Lower-income families, he added, “have been under additional pressure of late.”

But some are doing better than others; keep reading here.CV

STRATEGY

Workers in an office space with surrounded AI patterns.

Anna Kim

If you’re finding it impossible to talk about the future of work without mentioning AI, you’re not alone.

But there’s just one issue: 51% of leaders say they don’t have a “clear AI strategy,” according to a recent report from accounting firm BDO. And while 57% want to “fast track AI implementation,” 42% lack the enablement to do so.

This disconnect has created three AI-related concerns among workers, according to Cheryl Fields Tyler, people strategy and solutions leader at BDO USA. They’re fearful of job loss, stressed about managing their workloads with AI training, and confused about where to start.

“For organizations who are serious about really equipping their organizations and their teams with AI, they need to address all three issues,” Fields Tyler told HR Brew.

Read more on HR Brew.MC

Together With Terzo

MARKET FORCES

market forces chart

Francis Scialabba

Today’s top finance reads.

Stat: More than $1 trillion. That’s how much crypto’s stock market value has fallen since its October heights. (New York Times)

Quote: “Everyone says, ‘I don’t know how to finance a GPU, because I don’t know how long it will last.’”—Sarah Friar, CFO of OpenAI, on how AI companies’ earnings can be significantly affected by the way they calculate the depreciation of GPUs (Bloomberg Businessweek)

Read: How Marriott’s costly breakup with now-bankrupt Sonder went down. (Wall Street Journal)

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