It’s got to be every economist’s favorite dinner table debate: Is our economy K-shaped? U-shaped? E-shaped? A squiggly line? Two kids under a trench coat this whole time?

While the notion of a K-shaped economy—an environment in which top-earning households freely spend, while lower-income households pull back—came into the spotlight in 2020, it was 2025 that likely brought the term across many CFOs’ desks.

That was when we kept hearing about the “bifurcated consumer” in earnings calls, a polite way of saying some people were flush with cash and others decidedly weren’t. Many companies quickly adapted, with mainstays like McDonald’s reviving value options in late 2025.

And that’s one of the most interesting aspects of the ongoing K-shaped debate, at least in the eyes of Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union. “Economists are still debating this K-shaped concept, but CEOs are not,” she told us. “CEOs adopted it right away in the fall of last year.”

Keep reading.—NP

“What can I say, I’m just a catty Deadhead from DC and I live for drama”—Jerome Powell, probably.

It’s not often that a Federal Reserve meeting and the words “I live for drama” are invoked in the same sentence, but it’s also not often that, well, anything that’s happening at the Fed right now is ever happening.

During the Fed’s Wednesday press conference, Powell’s last as chair, plenty of folks tuned in to hear the central bank’s interest rate decision (unchanged), but the drama-loving among us also wanted some gossip: Would he stay or would he go?

Though Powell’s tenure as chair will end on May 15, he’s always had the option to remain a Fed governor until 2028.

Keep reading.—NP

If you paid any attention to tech earnings this week, you probably noticed that Big Tech’s master business plan seems to consist entirely of firing a cash cannon at anything involving the word “datacenter.”

Overall, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon are expected to spend over $670 billion in capex this year alone—up from $410 billion last year—and maybe even as much as $725 billion. Here’s each company’s spending plans for the year ahead:

• Meta increased its capex projection to between $125 billion and $145 billion, up from its prior estimate of between $115 billion and $135 billion.
• Microsoft told investors its capex spending will be roughly $190 billion. Prior analyst estimates were around $154.6 billion.
• Alphabet’s new capex is between $180 billion and $190 billion, up from its previous forecast of between $175 billion and $185 billion.
• Amazon told investors it’s expecting its own capex to land at around $200 billion, roughly in line with prior estimates.

Keep reading on Brew Markets.—LB