The US economy looked surprisingly resilient in 2025, according to GDP data the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released on February 20. But that surface strength may be hiding a few cracks: Economic growth might be resting on the AI boom and spending among higher-income consumers. And monthly PCE data suggests the Fed won’t be cutting benchmark interest rates any time soon.

2025 GDP looks solid: For 2025, inflation-adjusted, or real, GDP was up 2.2%, compared with 2.8% growth in 2024. Consumer spending and investment drove the gains, the BEA said. “Zooming out to 2025, growth clearly cooled, but given the policy whiplash, coming in above 2% looks better than it had any right to,” Olu Sonola, head of US economics at Fitch Ratings, said in a note, according to Bloomberg.

Q4 growth weak: The advance estimate of real GDP growth for Q4 2025, meanwhile, came in at a tepid 1.4%, less than the 2.5% increase that analysts from Dow Jones predicted and lower than a survey of Bloomberg economists anticipated, and far below Q3’s 4.4% growth.

But the Q4 dip may need an asterisk next to it, analysts said, because the quarter’s results were heavily affected by the 43-day government shutdown. The BEA estimated that the shutdown depressed economic growth by about one percentage point.

“Strip out the shutdown drag and growth looks closer to 2.5%, with the US consumer still carrying the load and AI-linked investment doing real work,” Sonola said.

Keep reading.—CV

If you thought 2026 was going to be the year IPOs made their comeback, February said, “hold my beer.”

In January, the IPO market was buzzing with expectations, but after a February marked by postponed IPOs, market volatility, and a notable software stock sell-off, 2026 is looking less rosy for IPOs.

“January 30, things did look pretty good,” Matthew Kennedy, senior IPO market strategist at Renaissance Capital, told CFO Brew. “I think we were saying this was going to be the 2026 IPO market’s first big test. And we were optimistic, but the test results were not as good as we were hoping for.”

Last month, things were looking up for IPOs after a slow 2025. EquipmentShare went public at a $6.7 billion valuation, and crypto company BitGo debuted at a $2.59 billion valuation. But then, BitGo’s share price declined 19% just two days after its initial offering on January 21.

Keep reading.—JK

Turns out even the biggest name in AI has a budget.

OpenAI is scaling back its infrastructure ambitions by more than half, cutting its spending plans from $1.4 trillion down to $600 billion through 2030, according to CNBC. It’s the latest warning sign that future revenue for AI startups may not be able to support the immense cost of expanding their AI systems.

Still, projections remain aggressive: Management expects annual revenue to exceed $280 billion by 2030, a 2,000% increase from last year. To fuel that growth, the ChatGPT maker is closing in on a blockbuster funding round that could see it raise over $100 billion. Nvidia is reportedly weighing an investment of up to $30 billion, alongside strategic backers including SoftBank and Amazon.

The revision reframes expectations for a market that has priced in relentless AI expansion, with hyperscalers collectively guiding toward nearly $700 billion in capital spending this year. Any moderation carries implications beyond AI labs, affecting chipmakers, power suppliers, and data-center developers whose growth assumptions hinge on sustained demand.

Keep reading on Brew Markets.—SY

From sparking mega deals to speeding up due diligence, AI is transforming how companies pursue and execute acquisitions. Here’s why executives are using M&A to fast-track AI ambitions.