The war in Iran will have a noticeable impact on the global economy, according to recent estimates that a risk-aware CFO will find unsurprising. In its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund predicted global real GDP growth would slow to 3.1% this year, compared with 3.4% growth in 2024 and 2025. That’s 0.2 percentage points lower than the IMF’s previous estimate. The organization didn’t change its 2027 growth estimate of 3.2%. “Absent the war [in the Middle East], global growth would have been revised upward,” the IMF noted. The conflict “presents a significant counterforce” to tailwinds like tech investments and a weaker US dollar, through its impact on commodity prices and inflation expectations, it added. Also noteworthy: The IMF made its predictions with the assumption “the conflict remains limited in duration and scope.” Oxford Economics was even more pessimistic. In a research briefing released the same day, the organization called the IMF’s forecast “still too rosy.” Rather, it expects 2.9% global GDP growth in 2026. The economic forecasting and advisory firm noted that its more pessimistic view is “consistent with a higher oil price path than the IMF’s: we anticipate the Brent oil price averaging $90pb in 2026—about $10pb higher than the IMF assumes.” Keep reading.—AZ |