Much of the economic news these days feels like we’re headed in the wrong direction. Oil prices are high. Inflation is on the rise. Consumers are gloomy. Pundits are raising the specter of stagflation and calculating the odds of a recession. Though some indicators are worrisome, the economy as a whole is in better shape than people give it credit for, Fifth Third Bank Chief Economist Jeffrey Korzenik believes. And the discourse around the “K-shaped economy” may be distorted. Low debt ratios. Though lower-income consumers are showing signs of stress, on the whole “the American consumer has a tremendous amount of resiliency,” Korzenik told CFO Brew. Consumers’ debt relative to their disposable income is “near multi-generational lows,” he pointed out during a session at the AICPA CFO Conference in April. That leaves households better able to “withstand shocks” such as high energy prices, he noted. Headlines that refer to “historically high levels” of consumer debt misstate an economic reality, he said at the conference. “As our economy grows, every kind of debt is going to move to historical highs over time. We’re just a bigger economy,” he pointed out. But no one will avoid the spillover from oil prices.—CV |