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We love a good offbeat recession indicator as much as the next person, but sometimes you’ve gotta turn to the heavy-hitters—the signs you can trust. And right now, those signs aren’t looking up.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which measures changes in business cycles and predicts future economic activity, fell for the 15th month in a row in June. That marks the longest stretch of dips since the run-up to the Great Recession in 2007–2008, according to The Conference Board. In short: bad news.
The index shrank 0.7% in June, which exceeded expectations: Economists polled by Reuters predicted an approximate 0.6% decrease.
The Conference Board cited dampened consumer expectations, growing unemployment claims, “and a reduction in housing construction” as causes for the gloomy outlook.
“Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement, predicting that the US economy will likely be in a recession from the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.
And other factors could further worsen the economy, according to Zabinska-La Monica, including “elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending.”
The Conference Board’s dreary index comes on the heels of level-headed recession commentary from big bank executives.
While many big bank earnings reports came in strong, some leaders, like JPMorgan CEO and chairman Jamie Dimon, stressed uncertainty about whether or not a recession was imminent. Dimon said he was unsure “if it’s going to lead to a soft landing, a mild recession, or a hard recession.”