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Inflation ticks up, leaves room for Fed rate cuts

The new inflation data came ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week.
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Inflation, inflation, read all about it.

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months through November, a slightly larger increase than the month before, the Labor Department said Wednesday.

Core prices (excluding food and energy costs, which fluctuate more significantly) climbed 3.3% for the year. That core reading was unchanged from the previous month, CNBC reported.

Inflation reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in 2022 (but you and everyone at your Thanksgiving dinner table already knew that). In the years since, the Federal Reserve has been aiming for 2% inflation. After finally hitting 2.4%—its lowest point in two years—in September, inflation ticked up again to 2.6% in October.

Part of the good news in Wednesday’s report is that housing cost inflation, which has been one of the persistent factors keeping inflation high, finally moderated. Not that much, though: The shelter index still made up nearly 40% of the overall inflation increase.

While the annual inflation rate is still above the Fed’s 2% target, Wednesday’s figures will likely give the central bank permission to cut rates when it meets next week, many economists and analysts believe.

“It gives the Fed enough confidence to cut interest rates on the 18th,” Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s chief economist, predicted to the New York Times. “Then, I think, they pause a bit in early 2025. I don’t think they cut rates in January.”

“Following today’s data the Fed will depart for the holiday break still confident in the disinflation process and we think it remains on course for further gradual easing in the new year,” Whitney Watson, global co-head and co-CIO for fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, told CNBC.

News built for finance pros

CFO Brew helps finance pros navigate their roles with insights into risk management, compliance, and strategy through our newsletter, virtual events, and digital guides.