The flurry of executive orders and personnel changes from the new Trump administration in the past two weeks probably contributed to the word “uncertainty” popping up in earnings calls quite a bit in January, according to a CFO Brew review.
Here’s what some CFOs are saying about uncertainty around interest rates, tariffs, and regulation in recent days.
Got your interest? We assume the Fed’s pace of rate cuts and increases are always top of mind for CFOs but it makes sense that financial services firms are even more focused on it.
The ambiguity around interest rates is starting to show up for some bank customers. On Jan. 22, Ally Financial CFO Russ Hutchison told analysts, “we acknowledge the macro environment remains uncertain,” and noted that delinquencies of 30 days or longer increased 15 basis points compared to the previous quarter, and “late-stage delinquencies remain a key watch item.” The bank’s projected range for net interest margin, he said, “reflects the uncertain impact of interest rates and deposit competition.”
American Express CFO Christophe Le Caillec signaled that uncertainty is impacting the company’s forecasting. He told analysts on Jan. 24 that their guidance “assumes a stable economy and reflects what we know today about the regulatory and competitive environment. At the same time, there is uncertainty in the environment whether in tax policy, interest rates, or currency movements.”
Tariffic. Companies that make or buy products that would be especially hard hit by Trump’s proposed tariffs are, unsurprisingly, talking about it on earnings calls. Alcoa CEO William Oplinger told analysts on Jan. 22 that “uncertainty related to the impact of any new US tariffs…could have wide ranging effects on supply, demand and trade flows.” (Most of the company’s aluminum made in Canada—on which Trump has proposed a 25% tariff—is bound for the US, according to Reuters, which Oplinger said they could avoid by importing metal from Australia.)
Mary Barra, CEO of GM, told analysts on Jan. 28 that the company faced “uncertainty around public policy, trade and regulation.” Tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports would hit GM’s truck manufacturing in those countries, and Trump’s plan, now underway, to end electric vehicle subsidies, including tax credits for people who buy them, would also take a toll. The company has “multiple playbooks” to handle the tariffs and tax credits so “that we can respond or even anticipate some of those moves,” CFO Paul Jacobson told analysts.
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Dysregulated. Trump ordered a “regulatory freeze” on his first day in office, and has pledged to get rid of 10 existing regulations for every new one he proposed. Hutchison, CFO of Ally Financial, said potential new regulations for capital requirements, which banks hope Trump will throw out, have an especially uncertain future.
Grant Brown, CFO of semiconductor company Qorvo, told analysts that its forecast for a non-GAAP tax rate would increase from 11% this year to 18% or 19% in the 2026 fiscal year as a result of new regulations, but the “impact of global minimum tax legislation for US-based companies under the new administration, as well as changes to international tax policy, remain highly uncertain.”
Not just vibes. A search of earnings transcripts by FactSet shows that these executives aren’t alone. The words “uncertainty” or “uncertain” were used a combined 102 times during earnings calls of S&P 500 companies from November 2024 through Jan. 28 of this year.
This is not to say we’re living in unprecedentedly uncertain times. In fact, there seems to be less uncertainty than 12 months ago. A year earlier, earnings calls contained 150 mentions of “uncertain” or “uncertainty,” according to FactSet.
Bernard Yaros, lead US economist for Oxford Economics, told CFO Brew that “corporate mentions of uncertainty ticked only modestly higher in Q4 2024 when the election took place.” To know whether this stretch of uncertainty is different than any other, “check back with us in April,” he wrote, and “we will have a better idea.”