Double-digit decline in economic optimism among small business owners

Here’s another item to add to the growing list of economic warning signs.

The proportion of small-business owners who feel like the economy will improve fell by 10 percentage points last month to 37%, according to the latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey.

What’s more, just 12% of respondents said now was a good time to expand, a five-point drop from January. This marked the largest monthly dip since April 2020, the NFIB noted. As if anyone needed a reminder, March 2020 was when the economy all but shut down as the Covid pandemic spread across the US and globally.

“Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons,” Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist, said in a statement. “Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall. Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second behind the top problem, labor quality.”

Overall, NFIB’s index of small business optimism decreased 2.1 points last month to 100.7. The index remained above the 51-year average of 98, “but is 4.4 points off its most recent peak of 105.1 in December,” according to the report. Its uncertainty index, meanwhile, rose to 104 points, its second highest level ever.

Gathering storm. Signs that businesses and consumers are worried have been percolating the last few months. Last month, CFO Brew reported that “uncertainty” became a popular refrain from executives during January earnings calls. Then, the Conference Board found US consumer confidence plummeted by seven points in February. The cherry on top of that uncertainty pie is a 20 percentage-point drop in optimism among finance leaders over last quarter, per an AICPA survey.