Consumers and prognosticators alike aren’t feeling great about the economy

Folks checking the economy’s temperature right now are finding a low-grade fever, with concern that symptoms may worsen.

To be clear, the signs aren’t all bad. For instance, inflation eased to 2.8% in February compared to 3% the previous month. But experts and consumers alike expect the economy will start sliding.

Consumers’ attitude toward the economy declined 10.5% between February and March, according to the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment. The reading of 57.9 was the lowest it’s been since November 2022, according to CNBC. Joanne Hsu, director of the university’s consumer surveys, noted in the index update that “sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024.”

It’s not just consumers who are feeling queasy. In its latest economic outlook, the OECD now expects US economic growth to slow to 2.2% this year and 1.6% in 2026, down from its “fast pace of 2.8%” last year and from OECD’s December estimates by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively. It also expects global GDP growth to edge down to 3.1% this year from 3.2% last year. OECD cited factors including “increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty” and “higher trade barriers.”

“Further fragmentation of the global economy is a key concern,” OECD noted in its report. “Higher and broader increases in trade barriers would hit growth around the world and add to inflation.”

While the year started with generally good feelings, those feelings appear to be largely replaced by anxiety. The Conference Board found that US consumer confidence dropped 7 points in February, AICPA reported that finance leaders’ optimism on the economy dropped 20 percentage points from last quarter, and NFIB found that just 37% of small-business owners in February said they expect the economy will improve, down 10% from January.