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The tariffs levied by President Donald Trump likely won’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, a CNBC survey of supply chain professionals suggests. Around six in 10 (61%) respondents CNBC polled said it would be more cost-effective for them to source goods from lower-tariff countries than to onshore. More than two-thirds said it would double (18%) or more than double (47%) their current costs to move supply chains back to the US.
The survey, which was fielded from April 7–10, polled 380 supply chain professionals at companies, trade groups, and associations in the manufacturing and logistics sectors, 120 of whom responded to all the questions.
Even if manufacturing were to return to the US, survey results suggested, manufacturing jobs might not. The majority of survey respondents—81%—said they’d prioritize automation over hiring in such a scenario.
Rebuilding US supply chains would also be a slow process. Four in 10 (41%) respondents who are considering reshoring said it would take three to five years to do so, while another third (33%) said it would take more than five years.
The vast majority of respondents (89%) said they’d seen orders canceled as a result of tariffs. Paul Brashier, VP of global supply chain at ITS Logistics, told CNBC he was seeing “a heavy cancellation or pause rate for freight originating from China” as well as companies ramping up orders from other Asian countries that would be hit by the 90-day tariff pause.
And nearly half (47%) said they’re planning layoffs, while 53% said they weren’t.
Tariffs will cause economic pain. Consumers can expect to feel the impact of the tariffs, the survey results suggested. More than six in 10 (61%) respondents said they planned to raise prices on goods hit by tariffs. The categories they saw as most affected included discretionary items (44%), furniture (19%), and luxury goods (19%).
And respondents took a pessimistic outlook toward the economy. Three-quarters (75%) predicted a slowdown in consumer spending, while 63% saw a recession happening in the near future.