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The economic warning signs just keep flashing.
The International Monetary Fund recently came out with a fresh forecast for global growth. Its conclusion: After projecting global growth of 3.3% this year and next, it now expects slower growth of 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026. The new projections are also below the 20-year historical average of 3.7% annual growth.
Why the change in just a handful of months? In its report, the IMF blamed a trade war and political volatility, specifically calling out “new tariff measures by the United States and countermeasures by its trading partners.”
“The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity,” per the report.
But fear not…or maybe fear less. The IMF noted its forecast is “based on information available as of April 4.” A lot has already changed since then on the tariffs front. Trump announced he would delay most of the reciprocal tariffs by 90 days to allow for negotiations, leaving just the blanket 10% tariff for many countries. And just this week, Trump told reporters the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports would “come down substantially” as the two countries work out an agreement, according to NBC News.
And while the stock market isn’t the whole economy, stocks shot up Wednesday morning in response to Trump’s softening stances on both China and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whom Trump said he doesn’t plan to remove, CNBC reported.